Südafrika: Aktueller Marktkommentar

Südafrika, 6. August 2014 —


Yesterday’s performance on the JSE was largely in line with technical action, which suggested that additional advances of a slightly less substantial magnitude were likely. The overall index traded up by 0.21%, adding 110 points, to close at 51,349 points while the JSE-TOPI was in the green by 0.24%. The performance was marginal, leaving the overall chart of the JSE-TOPI largely unchanged, with short-term indicators suggestive of additional weakness. Resource counters traded lower by 0.29%, giving up 172 points, while the platinum sector traded lower by 0.63%. Industrial counters enjoyed a workmanlike improvement, adding 0.54% or 314 points, but it is important to note that the sector remains shy of the resistance area at just beyond 60,000 points, indicating additional weakness is likely. Retailers traded lower by 0.63%, a loss of 434 points, and additional technical weakness on the sector is indicated in the very short term, largely as a result of the overbought position on the sector from a rate of change perspective. Banking counters traded lower by a small margin and will witness some further weakness today.


For the moment markets are being driven by diverging factors, as the unsettling global back creates an incentive for profit-taking, while economic data and earnings figures encourage participation in the trend. A third factor which requires consideration in assessing the near term trajectory of the market, is the increasing debate surrounding near term interest rates and potential policy adjustment from the FOMC. The Federal Reserve will come under increasing pressure in the months ahead to adopt a more neutral approach to rates, given the lower level of unemployment and general evidence of economic traction.


Yesterday’s improvement from the greenback stemmed largely from improving economic data, but also to a degree, reflected the assertive “safe haven” trade which continues to develop in favour of the US unit. Industrial metals remain relatively well supported and undoubtedly would exhibit further technical improvement, were it not for the improvement in the greenback. The brisk trend for the US currency continues to serve as a marginal headwind to global commodities, which are naturally priced in dollars.

Quelle: IAS

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